The California High Speed Rail Authority is basing their financial plan on attracting 41,000,000 passengers per year according to the Dec. 2009 update to the plan.
http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/images/chsr/20091214132101_CHSRARPT1209weblinks.pdf#page=121

Here is a reality check on their projections.


The Northeast Corridor from Boston to Washington DC has nearly twice the population of the San Francisco to San Diego Corridor. The Northeast attracts 20% more tourists. And in stark contrast to most California cities, the Northeast Corridor also has cities with actual city centers meaning that when you arrive at the train station you are close to hotels, offices and other places people want to visit.

Yet the entire Northeast Corridor with 2,600 trains operating daily generated a total of 9,946,027 passengers in FY 2009.  In other words, the California High Speed Rail Authority expects to transport 4-times as many passengers as the 2,600 trains in the densely packed Northeast Corridor.

You can download the press release from Amtrak at this link: Amtrak Posts Second-Best Ridership in History


Some more interesting facts in the Amtrak press release:

“As the nation’s intercity passenger rail operator, Amtrak connects America in safer, greener and healthier ways. Last fiscal year (FY 2009), the railroad carried 27.2 million passengers, making it the second-best year in the company’s history. With 21,000 route miles in 46 states, the District of Columbia and three Canadian provinces, Amtrak operates more than 300 trains each day—at speeds up to 150 mph—to more than 500 destinations. “ The 27.2 million number includes Amtrak’s operation of state-supported corridor services in 15 states and for four commuter rail agencies.

To summarize, the California High Speed Rail Authority expects their service between Northern and Southern California to transport nearly twice as many people as traveled on the entire Amtrak national system in FY 2009.